South Africans could be in for one of the most significant winter weather events of the year as a powerful cold front and a developing cut-off low threaten to bring severe weather across much of the country over the Women’s Day long weekend.
Forecasters say conditions are lining up for widespread rain, strong winds, sharply colder temperatures and snow between Sunday 9 August and Tuesday 11 August. While there is still uncertainty over exactly where the heaviest snowfall will fall, weather experts say this could become the biggest snow event of the 2026 winter.
So, people travelling for the long weekend may need to keep a close eye on forecasts as conditions develop.
Cold front and severe weather alert
Current forecasts suggest the cold front will move across the country before a cut-off low develops, creating the potential for prolonged severe weather in many regions.
Rain is expected across large parts of the country, accompanied by strong winds and a sharp drop in temperatures.
Snow!
Snow is considered most likely over the Maloti-Drakensberg mountains and along the Lesotho border, where meaningful accumulations are possible.
The Eastern Cape remains one of the provinces most likely to experience disruptive snowfall, particularly around Barkly East, Lady Grey and Matatiele.
The Free State could also see snow in eastern areas near Lesotho, including QwaQwa. Northern Cape communities around Sutherland could also see snow on higher ground.
In the Western Cape, rain is expected across much of the province, with snow possible over higher peaks including the Cederberg and Hex River mountains.
KwaZulu-Natal’s high-lying Drakensberg region is expected to receive snow, while strong coastal winds could develop ahead of the front.
And Gauteng?
One of the biggest questions remains whether Gauteng will see snow. Forecasters say there is still an outside chance, particularly over higher-lying areas, although confidence remains low.
Weather Hooligan forecaster Juandre Vorster said snow should not yet be ruled out for the interior, adding that the way the cut-off low develops over the next few days will determine whether snowfall spreads beyond the mountain regions.
He also posted this disclaimer. It’s worth a watch, especially for those among us who always criticse snow alerts and weather forecasters. 😂
Johannesburg is, however, expected to experience significantly colder conditions, with frost and freezing overnight temperatures possible later next week.
Farmers across the interior have also been warned to prepare for sub-zero temperatures, with northern parts of the country potentially seeing minimum temperatures between 1°C and 2°C.
Mountain passes and travel could be affected
The combination of snow, rain and strong winds could create hazardous travelling conditions in several parts of the country.
Sani Pass has been identified as facing a high risk of closure should snowfall become significant.
The Eastern Cape, which has experienced numerous snow-related road closures during previous winter systems, could once again see disruptions if current forecasts hold.
Forecasters are urging motorists planning Women’s Day weekend trips to check the latest weather updates before travelling, particularly if their routes include mountain passes or high-altitude roads.
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Why El Niño is not driving this winter weather
Although experts expect El Niño conditions to develop later this year, meteorologists say it should not be blamed for this week’s winter system.
Agricultural economist Paul Makube said South Africa is heading into an El Niño cycle later this year, which could bring drier conditions during the summer growing season.
He said the country is nevertheless entering the season in a much stronger position than previous drought cycles after two consecutive La Niña seasons replenished dam levels, soil moisture and water reserves.
Risk experts have also cautioned that drier conditions later in the year could increase the threat of wildfires if vegetation dries out after recent wet seasons.
Forecasts will continue to change
Forecasters stress that confidence is highest in the arrival of the cold front and widespread cold conditions.
Snowfall forecasts remain more uncertain.
Cut-off lows are among the most difficult weather systems to predict, and snowfall areas can change considerably as new forecast data becomes available.
For now, the message is simple. Prepare for severe weather, expect a sharp drop in temperatures and keep an eye on updated forecasts before heading out over the long weekend.
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