South Africa’s December fuel price forecast suggests motorists could see petrol prices fall, while diesel drivers may be facing another increase.
Early data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) points to lower petrol prices in December, despite the government’s planned reduction in temporary fuel-levy relief.[1]
The figures are still preliminary. The government warns that CEF’s daily reports are unaudited and should only be used as an indication of possible price movements.[2]
The next fuel-price adjustment is scheduled for Wednesday, 2 December 2026.
December petrol prices: What the numbers show
The early December forecast suggests both 93 and 95 petrol could become cheaper.
An over-recovery occurs when the underlying cost of fuel is lower than the amount already built into the current price. This creates room for a reduction when the government adjusts fuel prices.
However, the size of any December petrol-price cut remains uncertain.
For context, petrol prices dropped by just 1c a litre in November, according to the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources.[3]
Inland 93 petrol currently costs R29.87 a litre, while 95 petrol costs R30.24.
As we reported in our 4 November fuel-price update, the small reduction came despite the government’s temporary cut to fuel levies.
Why diesel could get more expensive
The catch is in the temporary fuel-levy relief announced by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana during October’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement.
For November, the general fuel levy was reduced by R1.50 a litre for petrol and R3 for diesel.
From 2 December until 5 January 2027, those reductions shrink to R1 for petrol and R1.50 for diesel.[4] This means petrol loses 50c a litre of its current relief, while diesel loses R1.50.
For petrol drivers, the early over-recovery could be enough to absorb the reduced discount and still allow prices to fall.
Diesel faces a tougher calculation. Although early figures suggest some relief in underlying diesel costs, the improvement may not be enough to offset the R1.50 reduction in fuel-levy relief.
Diesel prices could therefore increase in December, even if international fuel costs continue to ease.
Diesel retailers also set their own pump prices, meaning the amount motorists pay at filling stations can differ from the published wholesale price.[5]
What could still change before December
The CEF tracks movements in international fuel prices and the rand against the US dollar. Both affect the cost of importing fuel into South Africa.
The slate levy is another factor.
The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources increased the slate levy by 48.18c a litre for November, taking it to 135.84c. The levy helps recover outstanding costs when regulated fuel prices have been lower than the actual cost of supplying fuel.
That amount is already included in November’s prices. Any further change to the levy for December has yet to be confirmed.
The official December fuel prices are expected to be announced towards the end of November, ahead of the adjustment on 2 December.
Sources
[1] Central Energy Fund. “Daily Basic Fuel Price, 2026.” CEF Group, n.d.
[2] South African Government. “Fuel updates and information.” South African Government, n.d.
[3] Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources. “Minister Gwede Mantashe announces adjustment of fuel prices effective from 4 November 2026.” South African Government, Nov. 3, 2026.
[4] Godongwana, Enoch. “Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement 2026.” South African Government, Oct. 21, 2026.
[5] Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources. “Fuel Price Structure.” Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, n.d.
