South Africa’s petrol price has already broken through R30 a litre. Now, early data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) suggests a sharp November increase on top of that.
We ran our own numbers off CEF’s published data instead of relying on secondhand projections doing the rounds elsewhere. Here’s how we got there and why our figure looks different.
Petrol prices: November projections
South Africa’s fuel price works on a one month delay. November’s adjustment is based on the average daily under-recovery across the October review period, which runs from the start of October through to the Friday before the first Wednesday of November, so roughly 1 to 30 October this year.
CEF’s published data only covers 2 to 8 October so far. That’s about a week, roughly a quarter of the full review period. Taking that week’s average under-recovery and holding it flat for the rest of the month gives a projected November increase of around R3.35 per litre for petrol 95, R3.17 for petrol 93, R1.77 for diesel 0.05%, R1.97 for diesel 0.005%, and R4.06 for illuminating paraffin.
Other projections circulating elsewhere in SA media put the petrol increase closer to R4.60, with some pushing toward R5.00. Those figures lean on the same early CEF data we used, but stretch it further and round it upward before the month’s even a third over.
For petrol 95, international prices account for R2.88 per litre of the under-recovery, against R0.48 per litre from the exchange rate. The pattern holds across the other fuel types too, with the rand doing less damage than global oil prices but still adding to the pressure.
Let’s not fearmonger, yeah?
A three week gap in the data is a lot of room for the number to move, and leaning into the bigger figure this early reads more like headline bait than a careful estimate.
That said, these are early numbers though, and I am not a fuel economist or energy analyst. The only thing anyone can say for certain right now is that an increase is coming. How big it ends up being depends on three more weeks of oil prices and the rand, and nobody, including us, actually knows that yet.
CEF recalculates its figures daily, and the final adjustment depends on how the rand and international oil prices move over the rest of October.
DUT expert warns of knock-on pressure
South African motorists are already paying significantly more for fuel following sharp price increases that took effect on 7 October, with 95 petrol increasing by R3.33 a litre and diesel rising by up to R3.24 a litre.
The latest increase could put further pressure on households and businesses as higher transport and operating costs feed into the wider economy, according to Dr Christopher Ikechukwu Ifeacho, Lecturer in the Department of Public Management and Economics at Durban University of Technology (DUT) and a researcher in economic growth and development.
“Fuel is a fundamental input into almost every part of the economy. South Africa is particularly sensitive to fuel-price movements because goods, agricultural products, workers and services depend heavily on road transportation,” says Dr Ifeacho.
In June 2026, Stats SA reported that transport was the largest contributor to annual and monthly consumer price inflation, while fuel prices had increased by 34.3% over the preceding 12 months. “This is why a fuel-price increase can have an economy-wide effect even on businesses that are not themselves large fuel consumers,” says Dr Ifeacho.
However, Dr Ifeacho cautions that higher fuel prices do not automatically mean food prices will increase by the same proportion. “Food prices are determined by several factors, so fuel is one component of a much broader cost structure,” he explains.
“Most importantly, households should recognise that a temporary fuel-price shock and a sustained increase are different situations,” he says.
Dr Ifeacho says South Africans should distinguish between short-term fuel-price movements and a sustained shock that begins to affect broader prices and economic activity. The key issue, he says, is not simply what motorists pay at the petrol station, but how long elevated fuel costs persist and how extensively they are transmitted through the wider economy.
Government considers subsidy
Government is supposedly* considering ways to shield consumers from rising fuel prices. This is according to President Cyril Ramaphosa, who spoke to ENCA on the sidelines of his visit to the Redlands Dairy Farm in Stutterheim, Eastern Cape.
Ramaphosa conceded that the rise in fuel price has been occasioned by the war in the Middle East and is affecting many countries around the world. He said budgetary constraints have to be considered when proposals are made on how consumers can be shielded from the fuel shock.
“It does actually eat into our country’s reserves and our country’s fiscal position, so we need to consider all those things. Unfortunately, it’s not an overnight decision that can just be taken like that. We’ve got to consider the impact of anything that we can do,” he added.
(*) Forgive us for not popping the champagne just yet. This is the same government that’s been promising decisive action on gender-based violence for years now, with the crisis still raging and little to show for the promises. So we’re filing “government considers a subsidy” under things to believe once we see them, not before.
