The South African Weather Service issued an Orange Level 8 warning for parts of the Western Cape and Eastern Cape, effective Wednesday 3 and Thursday 4 June 2026.
The warning covers the Garden Route, Swellendam Municipality, and the Central Karoo, and is driven by a powerful cut-off low pressure system expected to affect the eastern parts of the Western Cape over those two days.
Rainfall accumulations of between 50mm and 90mm are expected over the Central Karoo, western parts of the Garden Route District, and Swellendam Municipality, prompting a Yellow Level 4 warning.
However, significantly heavier rainfall of 150 to 200mm is possible over the eastern Garden Route District, which is what triggered the Orange Level 8.
The weather service warns that even higher totals are possible in mountainous regions.
An additional Orange Level 5 warning has been issued for areas stretching from Plettenberg Bay to East London, with localised flooding risks in the southern parts of the Eastern Cape.
Schools closed, sandbags out
The Western Cape Education Department has announced the closure of all public ordinary and special needs schools in the Eden and Central Karoo education district for both Wednesday and Thursday.
The department expects schools to reopen on Friday 5 June, provided conditions improve, but says the situation is under constant review and further closures remain possible.
In George, the municipality has made sand available for sandbags at several sites, including the Pacaltsdorp traffic department and the Thembalethu fire station. The George municipal landfill site will also be closed on Wednesday and Thursday due to the expected rainfall.
The George Municipality has activated contingency measures and placed all essential services on high alert, with an integrated, multi-sector response mobilised across all municipal directorates, including Uniondale and Haarlem.
This is the second major hit in less than a month
The latest warning follows a devastating severe weather event that struck the Western Cape between 10 and 13 May 2026.
Consecutive cold fronts and severe storms caused widespread flooding and destruction across the province, claiming at least 11 lives. More than 83,000 people were affected, while over 21,000 homes sustained damage.
The agricultural losses from that event were significant.
Preliminary assessments put damage and production losses to the pome and stone fruit industry alone at an estimated R6.3 billion, representing approximately 26% of the combined deciduous fruit industry’s gross production value of R24.6 billion.
More than 6,700 direct agricultural jobs are considered at risk as a result. In the Cape Winelands district alone, more than 2,200 people, predominantly farmworkers and their families, were displaced when rivers burst their banks.
The Hex River Valley’s table grape industry is now facing its third major flood in five years. Young vines replanted in August 2025 to replace blocks destroyed in the 2024 floods have been completely washed away again.
The climate pattern behind the pattern
According to GroundUp’s reporting on the May storm, in each of the last four years there has been at least one month with extreme rainfall, where up to 300% of the long-term average monthly rainfall was recorded.
SAWS itself has noted that cut-off lows are likely to become more unpredictable going forward, with regions not usually affected potentially being hit, and the severity of storms becoming harder to forecast.
SAWS Communications Manager Hannelee Doubell noted that the service’s seasonal climate watch forecast for May to September 2026 shows below-average rainfall overall. That said, Doubell cautioned “this does not mean that extreme events are not possible.”
That is a useful thing to keep in mind when a Level 8 warning lands three weeks after the last one.
What to do right now
If you are in the affected areas, the following applies until conditions clear:
- Do not attempt to cross flooded roads, bridges, or swollen rivers
- Secure outdoor equipment and prepare livestock for potentially dangerous conditions
- Residents in the Garden Route and Central Karoo should have emergency supplies ready
- Monitor the SAWS website and official municipal channels for updated warnings
Communities in affected areas are still recovering from last month’s severe weather, which left roads damaged, rivers swollen, and some areas particularly vulnerable to further flooding. Another 150 to 200mm on top of that is not an abstract number.
