As a South African journalist with an eye on global tech trends, I can’t help but wonder: what would our cities look like if autonomous vehicles (AVs) started popping up on our streets like they have in China?
While we’re still navigating potholes and minibus taxis, our friends in the East are already hailing rides from robots.
Pretty much like the sci-fi future we’ve only seen in movies! I think the 1996 film Demolition Man (yes that one, with Sylvester Stallone and the three seashells…) might have been my first memory of seeing AV technology on screen.
But anyway. I digress.
AVs in China: highs and lows
According to a recent report by 36Kr, Baidu’s Apollo Go service in Wuhan, China, is now completing over 20 rides per car daily – almost matching human taxi drivers.
It’s a bit like imagining a self-driving Uber cruising down Sandton Drive or zipping through Cape Town’s CBD.
Sounds far-fetched? Maybe not for long.
Now, I know what you’re thinking: ‘But we don’t even have Uber drivers in every city yet!’
True, but that’s exactly why we need to pay attention to what’s happening in China and elsewhere (Hello Waymo in San Francisco!)
A lesson for South Africa
China’s ride-hailing industry has been around for over a decade, dominated by giants like Didi Chuxing.
Sound familiar? It’s not unlike how Uber has become synonymous with ride-hailing here.
But here’s the kicker: despite its maturity, China’s ride-hailing industry is still grappling with profitability issues.
Companies like Caocao Chuxing and OnTime are posting significant losses. It’s a stark reminder that even with our growing ride-hailing sector, the road to profitability might be longer than we think.
So…. AVs in SA?
What could AVs — autonomous vehicles — mean for South Africa?
On one hand, they could address some of the challenges we’re facing.
- Imagine reducing the number of road accidents caused by tired or distracted drivers.
- Or providing reliable transport in areas where driver shortages are an issue.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
As Zhang Ning from Pony.ai points out, running a fleet of autonomous taxis requires massive investments in scheduling and maintenance systems.
I guess that would be the equivalent of setting up a high-tech taxi rank that runs itself. No small feat!
There’s also the question of jobs.
AVs and jobs
In a country with high unemployment rates, how would we balance the potential benefits of AVs with the need to protect livelihoods?
It’s a conversation we need to start having now, even if autonomous taxis aren’t yet on our immediate horizon.
While we might not see self-driving taxis on our roads tomorrow, keeping an eye on China’s experience can help us prepare for a future where they might become a reality.
Who knows? Maybe one day we’ll be able to hail a robotaxi from Soweto to Sandton, or take an autonomous scenic drive along the Garden Route.
Until then, we’ll keep navigating our unique transport landscape, learning from global trends, and maybe – just maybe – dreaming of a future where our biggest commute complaint is that the AI didn’t understand our local slang…
