South Africans have experienced an unfamiliar reprieve—nine months without load shedding. Eskom, the country’s beleaguered power utility, announced a significant milestone: 275 consecutive days without power cuts since March 26, 2024. But does this mark the end of the energy crisis, or is it another fleeting moment of stability?
Eskom attributed the progress to its Generation Recovery Plan, coupled with intensified maintenance efforts during periods of low electricity demand. Maintenance activities, averaging 8,000 MW, have reportedly improved the utility’s operational reliability. Yet, skepticism lingers as many remember Eskom’s history of fleeting promises and recurring setbacks.
Diesel savings mask lingering challenges
The utility revealed a R16.2 billion reduction in diesel expenses compared to the same period last year, a saving of approximately 65.1%. This improvement, Eskom claimed, reflects “structural generation improvements” and reduced reliance on costly open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs).
Read: Eskom reports R55 billion loss in 2024, projects R10 billion profit for 2025
Despite these advances, Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor (EAF)—a measure of how much electricity its generation fleet can produce—remains middling. The EAF for 2024 stands at 62.37%, up from 55.35% last year. While progress is evident, the figure still falls short of global benchmarks, leaving South Africa’s power grid vulnerable to demand spikes or unexpected outages.
Summer outlook holds steady
Eskom remains cautiously optimistic, maintaining its earlier forecast of a load shedding-free summer. As of late December, unplanned outages averaged 11,900 MW—significantly below the base case of 13,000 MW for the season.
Yet, the utility’s reliance on peaking stations and other stopgap measures raises questions about the long-term sustainability of these improvements. In recent weeks, unplanned outages have hovered around 11,438 MW, a reduction of 2,542 MW compared to last year. Eskom noted that several power stations achieved Energy Availability Factors above 60%, but such progress may prove fragile as winter approaches.
Trust remains elusive
While Eskom’s figures suggest a cautious step forward, South Africans remain wary. Past attempts to stabilize the grid often unravelled amid unforeseen breakdowns, corruption, and mismanagement. Furthermore, challenges like illegal connections, network vandalism, and electricity theft persist, undermining local grids and straining Eskom’s capacity to deliver consistent power.
Eskom’s plea to the public—avoid illegal connections and purchase electricity only from authorized vendors—serves as a reminder that South Africa’s energy woes extend beyond the utility itself.
